Utz and rock, you guys are something else, really.
On another note: had a great game going a little while ago with a very good opponent. Played as Axis, opponent was Allies, and I was stacking egypt hard. Definitely at least 7 or 8 rounds in and he still couldn't have hit it with better than 30% odds or so. The board was getting stagnant for the Allies, Africa was blue, Japan had 3 ICs and 9-10 transports and was trading in Kaz and Novo. Germany was well stacked too with all its tanks and planes, with stacks in Berlin and EE, trading WE with a couple of UK inf a round, threatening a Cau stack the minute the Allies peeled off to bolster Russia or try and push back into Asia.
So my opponent decided to mix it up to try and break the deadlock (which was slowly tilting Axis favor, I think its fair to say), so he takes SE with US- 10 units, loses 2, 8 left. His fleet off SE consisted of 1 carrier, 1 battleship, 2 fighters, 2 destroyers, a sub, and 5 transports. He has 4 transports also in 12. No other boats. He has a couple of fighters and a bomber in Cau, and another 2 fighters and 2 bombers in Cau for UK (I think).
On Germany's turn I retake SE.
When it comes around to Japan's turn, I hit it with everything that can reach, thinking to land a decisive blow by wiping out the US fleet, and hoping to have enough units left to seriously threaten Atlantic. I think conservatively he would have been forced to stay off Africa and Europe for at least 2-3 rounds to rebuild a viable escort fleet and 2nd half of transport chain. That felt like it would be a pretty bad setback for the Allies. So in I go with 2 battleships, 1 destroyer, 2 carriers, 3 transports, 6 fighters, 1 bomber. I ran it on the calculator first (as I usually do for big battles) and came up with these results:
99.2% chance to win, average IPC loss for me is 53.735.
So on average, I'd wipe the fleet and lose the transports, destroyer, and a couple of fighters. Wow, that's a nice trade. But even if it goes poorly, it seems I can reasonably be expected to survive at least the battleships, a carrier, and a couple of fighters. That's just fine with me. Game on.
First round of combat his sub hits. Then I roll...
He defends 6.
He didn't lose a single unit and I lose half the fleet and a fighter. Just like that. Game over even with a withdrawal as he has enough units to take out the fleet with what he has. Already knowing I'm done I play it out and the two sides completely annihilate each other.
It was a very fun game, and this battle doesn't change that, but I wonder why the game should have been ended like that. I don't think its fair to say I would have won without 14 going poorly, but I think its fair to say I liked my chances without the dicing. Seems a Middle Luck option would be nice when you get results like that, but dice are dice, and no big deal. I'm sure they'll come around for me in a battle one day. Or will they?
One thing I realized is that I rarely "give" dicings. Is this because I get unfair dice more often? Nope! Actually there's a much more rational reason. I play a conservative style for the most part. There are certainly calculated risks I'm willing to take throughout a game, usually early on in small battles when there is more variation yet they can mean a lot, but as the game progresses I definitely get much more conservative, playing the IPC and position game to try and keep squeezing an extra unit out of my builds and taking from the other guy, to build up to the point the percentages slowly work up for me, and once that starts happening I won't attack until I start seeing odds rising to 85%+. But before that happens, I simply wouldn't risk large numbers of units or expensive ones by placing them in positions to get hit by overwhelming force or have low chance to win. So the opportunity to "give" dicings almost never happens for me as a result of my play style.
So for anyone else who feels they get diced more often then give it, that's probably due to your play style, which I think is a positive. You can't give a dicing unless you put big units in harms way for a bad battle.
That's my shpeel for the day.
He's a talker that BK!