I have played almost 1200 games [most didn't go 2/3 rounds
in the early dayz] and I so hated the dice here at GTO. I mean just when you think you've got it.......well, you ain't got it!
Just last night, I was in a game with IronWolf as a partner [thanx for that 300th win by the way] and we were lookin' good, all we needed to do is have 1 tank left standing in the Ukraine so we could keep WR stacked. The "average" result is that we have 3 inf 2 tanks & 2 ftrs left.
Our chance of success 95.xx% and we couldn't do it!
We had to pull outta' WR and struggle for some time b4 recovering.
Then, when we had a FAT stack in Karelia and were thinkin' we were set for 1/2/3 punch in EE, mostly because we were tired although the numbers were there, The Brits hit 1st & Germany rolled so much RED on the 1st roll !! OMG
Had to withdraw my planes.
Problem is: We didn't have to do it. Even though the battle calc showed us a very good favorite, we shoulda' been patient & kept stackin' Karelia like AFATCAT waitin' to pounce!!
Now I now where AFatCat came up with his name!
Now, I understand that 6 inf killing: 2 inf & 3 fighters sounds ridiculous, but it happens 5.35% of the time, so it is far from from being outrageous! In fact, the 6 inf has the chance of having one still living 4.63% of the time.
And this happens every game if you pay attention. It's just that it happens when it doesn't really matter.
For instance, this reminds me of the time my opponent attacked my tranny with his battleship & I got a hit 1st & he missed 5 times in a row! That's .33*.33*.33*.33*.33 = 0.39% chance of occurrence!
He hit on his 6th roll, and my tranny didn't, so all was well that ends well & we had a good laugh together
0.39% chance is a helluva' lot lower than the 5.35% chance of 6 inf killin' 2 inf & 3 fighters.
And, how many times in a game, do you see the battleship miss & the 6 inf 2 tanks 3 planes also miss on the 1st roll? Or some outrageous group of units rollin' all white? I see it quite often, but the end result is about average, so it doesn't mean anything and you forget about it.
There is a reason many experts will tell you that a game lost primarily because of the dice, is a 'rare bird."
There has to be a strategy that allows for a "Plan B" when things do not go well. NecOne must have found it. He wrote all about it. It's in the strategy forum. Not the specific strategy, but his approach to the game in general.
NecOne won the Champ's Division 2 cycles in a row. It's my understand that he doesn't hit Ukraine with Russia on T1.
Jkizzle, took 2nd place to NecOne on tiebreaks and the following cycle he went 8-0 and won.
When I first came here, I thought I understood dice & its randomness. I think I did, I just wasn't tuned in to taking a beating at a crucial time by the dice or having the discipline to be patient [as in the game with IronWolf] after 4+ hrs of play & you see a win in sight & forget how cruel the dice can be.
It's like bmaster said [in so many words] : You can't expect to win every game!
When the players who have been grinding it out [and I mean the ones who have been at it hard core], cycle after cycle, in the Champ's Division & Division 1/2 start complaining about the dice algorithm being screwed up, then I'll think we might have an issue.
I can see how someone, if they really know the game, will still only expect to win 80%-93% of their games against the best.
I'm still searchin' for that "perfect strategy" but I tell you what: I can't bring myself to play LL to see where the best laid plans are. There's just no excitement in it and I'm an andrenalin' junkie!
Trust me, when I say: I feel your pain! Hardly a week goes by I don't wanna' throw something at the monitor! About a month ago I threw 5 dice at it that I was rollin' around in my hands, 5 hrs into a game when the stress was up there.
NecOne has written [in the strategy forum] about his conservative approach to the game & how he was successful in the ladder league.
If the dice burns someone out........they can always find plenty of hard-core experts in the Low Luck Ladder League. Those are some tough hombres!
Enjoy, and may the dice be fair!!