Prerequisite for Dice Complainers

[RobEng]

A recurring forum topic here at GTO is how our dice roller is broken. The purpose of this post is not to deal with that question. What I am seeking to do is to try and clear up some misconceptions about dice probabilities and how they get applied at GTO and in particular to Axis & Allies. I think part of the problem is that players go in with expectations of results and those expectations are too strong. I am not probability expert and don't expect GTO users to be experts on probability but I would like a to encourage a baseline understanding of what they know and what requires a deeper understanding.

Test question: rolling 3 six-sided dice, what percent of the time will you roll at least one 6? If your answer is 50% you are not alone as you probably used the logic that it is odds of rolling one die and getting 6 multiplied by 3, 1/6+1/6+1/6. The correct answer is actually 42.13% because combinations of multiple 6s should be counted only once for getting a single 6. The 8% seems small but it does mean more often you will not get any 6s throwing 3 dice. http://www.edcollins.com/backgammon/diceprob.htm will back me up on this. The author goes on to note that if you threw 9 dice, 19.38% of the time you will get no 6s on those 9 dice, almost 1 out of 5 times. Please take the time to get the whole picture before you go spouting that you got "diced" or your opponent hacked our server when your 9 infantry got no hits.

[ace15]

Geez Rob, don't go messin' up our preconceptions with that math garbage! We just know when we are gettin' hosed and it's no good using your high-falutin' statistics, ain't gonna buy it, no how, no way!

[FALCONLEADER]

I view the dice or "dicing" as part of the game. Not fun to be diced,,,,but it is the game we play. We all play on the same map,,,,,and use the same dice. The only thing that has me scratching my head a lil is the seemingly high ratio of a single infantry rolling a hit when defending a dead zone territory,,,,

[Hobbes77]

I view the dice or "dicing" as part of the game. Not fun to be diced,,,,but it is the game we play. We all play on the same map,,,,,and use the same dice. The only thing that has me scratching my head a lil is the seemingly high ratio of a single infantry rolling a hit when defending a dead zone territory,,,,

Another important thing for players to keep in mind is that one thing are odds and the actual dice results. Odds are theory, dice results reality.

[mmd1]

there is a good discussion on this very thing here - http://www.edcollins.com/backgammon/diceprob.htm

[Rikler]

I Guess since my days here are numbered I`ll go ahead and share the knowledge of the secret weapon in my arsonal.

I`ve found that if I get white and my opponent rolls red on the first roll then most likely I am about to get diced. Sometimes this bad first roll doesn`t get any better and all units will be lost. Anybody who plays a lot knows what I`m talking about.

After a dismal 17 and 27 start I began rebooting games when I get this bad white/red first roll. When you reboot you get a new set of dice and the pattern is broken. About 90% of the time I get red dice and often my opponent becomes the one who gets all white.

The results have been devastating to my opponents and I have gone 35 and and 14 since I began using this deadly dicing technique.

I play 40 plus games at once so I have no time to think about strategy. With my dicing move I don`t need any. Unless you are a really good conservative player I will dice you badly during our game. I even managed to dice a few guys playing low luck.

[RobEng]

I Guess since my days here are numbered I`ll go ahead and share the knowledge of the secret weapon in my arsonal.

I`ve found that if I get white and my opponent rolls red on the first roll then most likely I am about to get diced. Sometimes this bad first roll doesn`t get any better and all units will be lost. Anybody who plays a lot knows what I`m talking about.

After a dismal 17 and 27 start I began rebooting games when I get this bad white/red first roll. When you reboot you get a new set of dice and the pattern is broken. About 90% of the time I get red dice and often my opponent becomes the one who gets all white.

The results have been devastating to my opponents and I have gone 35 and and 14 since I began using this deadly dicing technique.

I play 40 plus games at once so I have no time to think about strategy. With my dicing move I don`t need any. Unless you are a really good conservative player I will dice you badly during our game. I even managed to dice a few guys playing low luck.

If this all works for you, great.

[OooohRah64]

I Guess since my days here are numbered

Rickster I wasn't aware you were ill.
I hope your doctors don't...ah...roll all white dice.

[dgss1]

Rikler
Myself....I just hover my cursor in the A whole....... then click

Works everytime

dg

[Rikler]

OooohRah64 ,

I like to provide hope to my critics even if it is a flawed hope.

[bmaster]

hmm, not sure if you were being sarcastic, but:

I`ve found that if I get white and my opponent rolls red on the first roll then most likely I am about to get diced.

This is a self-evident statement. The precursor to "getting diced" is usually having a horrible first round. That greatly increases the probability that the overall battle is suddently much more likely to end up in what at the outset appeared to be a very unlikely result. This is also, btw, a good time to take the "retreat" option.

After a dismal 17 and 27 start I began rebooting games when I get this bad white/red first roll. When you reboot you get a new set of dice and the pattern is broken.

Not sure how you reboot to avoid the game saving the die roll, sounds like a good way to cheat. But in terms of how it plays out...
1)Are you sure you're not just picking the battles in a different order? This would preserve the same run of high/low die rolls, but might change who gets what. Done with precision, this could be a good (if very tiring) approach to cheat.
2)If you are truly resetting the dice algorythm by rebooting, then you're simply increasing your odds of winning by forcing re-rolls whenever you get a bad result. AKA cheating.

but maybe you were just joking?

[Rikler]

I like how you think bmaster. OK, since you`re a pal of mine I will only cheat half the dice next time we play that way it won`t devastate you as badly as it normally does.

[RobEng]

When you reboot you get a new set of dice and the pattern is broken.

Not sure how you reboot to avoid the game saving the die roll, sounds like a good way to cheat. But in terms of how it plays out...
1)Are you sure you're not just picking the battles in a different order? This would preserve the same run of high/low die rolls, but might change who gets what. Done with precision, this could be a good (if very tiring) approach to cheat.
2)If you are truly resetting the dice algorythm by rebooting, then you're simply increasing your odds of winning by forcing re-rolls whenever you get a bad result. AKA cheating.

but maybe you were just joking?

Rikler is wrong. The dice rolling sequence does not reset when someone reconnects. There is 1 randomization seed for the whole game and both players. When you reconnect to a game, the dice rolling sequence goes on from the point it left off. The game is being managed by the server and it not does care if your computer is logging on-and-off. Additionally when a rollback is done in a PBE game, the dice roller does not roll back and continues from the point it left off.Example: you take your turn, the 1st battle gets you 3 1s in combat, I roll back the game to the start of your turn, your next 3 dice will not be guaranteed to be 3 1s. This is intentional and I had it coded that way so that players could not manipulate the server to adjust the dice to fit their needs.

I apologize that I did not shoot down this theory earlier but I thought but saying less about this and letting Rikler believe it that it would make this incarnation of dice conspiracies stop. I was wrong.

[bmaster]

that's ok Rikler, I think you could use the boost in our games

[dgss1]

Great, then hoovering my cursor in the whole of the A Must work. You didn't dis-spell my method for great dice Rob.

I knew I found the "sweet spot" for good dice. Use it wisely peoplessss and don't tell anyone else how to get those Totally Awesome dice...we just need to keep it to ourselves OK?

dg