DarthCrow wrote:I Agree with the luck factor. I've never been able to explain why bad rolls can be just that to my friends. Say, 6 tanks invade 3 infantry, and all the tanks miss, but all the infantry hit. It sucks when you are the tanks, but if all the infantry were "dug in" it can be explained logically. I like the idea of Low luck, but I have to agree with the fact that there is just to many vairables in war to make it absolute.
Low Luck is a ridiculous option as far as I am concerned & I'll explain why:
Let's say that Japan has just captured Moscow but Germany is under immense pressure from the Brits & USA.
Germany has say 34 inf 8 art & 8 tanks & 4 fighters left.
Because Japan concentrated on capturing Moscow, Allies own majority of IPCs in Africa, so the Brits are healthy & USA has a ton of trannys to ship units & hit WE & SE in coordination with the Brits.
Germany is not going to be able to keep taking back both SE & WE until Japan [who has 20+ tanks in Moscow] arrives.
So Germany needs to strafe WE and/or SE.
Say the Allies have 14 inf & 6 tanks in WE.
Using low luck, Germany simply hits it with 18 inf 8 art & 4 tanks, hits WE twice & is GUARANTEED to be able to withdraw after the 2nd roll leaving the Allies with 1 tank 82% of the time & 2 tanks just under 18% of the time.
In addition, the Allies IPC loss is greater than Germany's as G only loses infantry.
Using regular dice, Germany is going to take WE 41% of the time and have all those offensive units vulnerable to a 1/2 punch, when all it is earning is about 30 IPCs, which is only enough to replace the infantry it loses on the guaranteed strafes using low luck.
Or, a simplier scenario:
Russia has 1 inf in the Ukraine & Germany wants it back. In low luck, you go in with 2 inf & 1 fighter & you are guaranteed to kill the lone Russian inf about 99.83% of the time & will lose both of your inf only 2.25% of the time.
You will NEVER lose your fighter.
Using regular dice, you lose both your infantry 5.35% of the time. AND you only kill the lone inf 99.32% of the time, if, when the scenario arises where G misses 2x in a row & R hits 2x in a row, G is still willing to try and kill the inf with just his/her fighter & will lose that fighter about 1.36% of the time. Something that will not occur in LL [according to the dice calculator].
Low luck allows Germany to save resources & build quicker for a stack in Karelia or the Ukraine.
The only way I would be swayed into believing that LL may be a viable option, is if bb82 [who has devoted many an hour devising his conservative style of play] were to play 30 different experts within 5 levels of him & he not be able to win at least 60%. Since the majority of his opponents would be playing a more aggressive style, they would be prone to dice failure.
I'll tell ya' all a lil' story I like to tell:
Rockismyreligion was a strong proponent [according to his posts in the forum back in the day] of Russia needing to attack the Ukraine on T1.
So, imagine my SURPRISE, when I was granted the privilege of partnering with him & demandred against 2 experts. Majorblitz was playing Germany & Rocky was playing Russia.
On his opening turn, Rocky only hits Belo & WR, which is bb82's opening move!
I was shocked!!!
I asked him what was up with that, since it contradicts everything he has said in the past in the forum.
He said that when you are up against a German opponent who can see several moves deep, hitting the Ukraine is too risky, because it is a "do or die" situation. If you end up with bad rollz, the German player is going to know EXACTLY how to MAXIMIZE his advantage of you getting a less than favorable outcome on Russia's opening move.
And, I'm not talkin' about getting diced bad. I'm talkin' about losing 3 more inf in WR than you should & just having 1 tank left in the Ukraine.
I believe we should have bb82 play 2 games each against 30 different experts with him as the Allies and see how he does with his conservative play.
I say 2 games each, so that if one of the experts plays something unexpected, he will be prepared for it in game 2.
Then we will know if there is a way to truly minimize the randomness of regular dice.
Keep in mind that the bid cannot be more than G5, because if his opponent isn't willing to take the Axis for less than G6, he will jump at the chance to take the Axis for G5 & feels his chances of winning are much better than playing the Allies against a G6 bid.